TVMM - Race Plan

I agonized over my race plan for the upcoming Trivandrum Marathon. I usually mentally break down the route into small manageable sections and set mini time targets for each section. Normally these sections are equidistant and I can plan my splits fairly quickly. When I break down a route there will be familiar landmarks that mark the sections so it is easier to plan it out in my head. For example, along my Marina route I know that the Gemini Flyover comes at the 3K mark, the Gandhi statue at the 6.5K mark and so on. So when I am actually running, when I get to these points, I just check to see if I am on track time-wise. The race route being completely new territory, I have had to go by the water stations as given in the organizers map. These are not equidistant so setting time targets going by the ideal pace involved some complex math (and I am not that great with math!). I have arrived at the magic numbers though and here they are:

Hydration Point 1: 2.5K: Target Time: 18:30 

Hydration Point 2: 5K: Target Time: 37:00

Its always a good plan to run the initial half of the run slower than the 2nd half - many trainers advocate this "negative split" because it conserves energy and you are able to finish strong. This is my intention as well. In any case the start will always be slow because it is usually crowded at the beginning. My plan means I will be running at an average pace of 7'25" which is quite a comfortable pace. 

Hydration Point 3: 7.5K: Target Time: 54:30

Hydration Point 4 / U turn: 10K: Target Time: 1:12:00

The next two bits will be run a slightly faster pace of 7'00". I believe this would still be a comfortable pace for me.

Hydration Point 5: 12K: Target Time: 1:25:30

Hydration Point 6: 13.5K: Target Time: 1:35:45

Hydration Point 7: 15K: Target Time: 1:46:00

The middle section of the race is when I plan to run my fastest - a pace of 6'45". This will NOT be comfortable yet it shouldn't be that hard as not to be able to sustain it for 5 km

Hydration Point 8: 17.5K: Target Time: 2:03:30

Here's where I deviate from the negative split plan. I would have to slow down and come back to 7'00" just to ensure that my legs don't fall off during the run.

Finish: 21.1K: Target Time: 2:29:45

The point between the last hydration station and the finish is a long stretch of 3.6 kilometers (a little concerned here). Going by all my previous HMs, I will be running on near empty by this time. This compounded by no hydration breaks, I will be bound to slow down during this last stretch. Keeping a comfortable 7'30" pace for this bit means I should cross the finish line at a neat 2:29:45 - sub 2:30 and PB if goal is met.

Very nice plans all, but everything could just go for a toss in a snap. If the weather is hot or muggy, I will be happy if I can sustain an average pace of 7'45". Too many inclines, too crowded, raining, not able to find my rhythm, not rested enough - it could be anything. Sometimes I wonder why I even bother to plan this out so meticulously  - 'coz not once have I been able to stick with it. :-) 

Maybe this time's the charm! (Hope. there is always hope!)